Volatility and Hit Frequency: Two Numbers Behind the Feel of a Game

Two games can return the same share of stakes over time and feel nothing alike. Volatility and hit frequency are the reason.

Hit frequency

Hit frequency is how often a spin produces any win at all, however small. A game that pays something on one spin in three has a high hit frequency. One that pays on one spin in six has a low one.

A catch: many "wins" are smaller than the bet. A spin that costs ten and returns four is counted as a hit and celebrated on screen, while the balance has gone down.

Volatility

Volatility, sometimes called variance, describes how the returns are distributed. A low-volatility game returns its money in many small prizes. A high-volatility game holds most of its return in a few large ones, which means long stretches of little or nothing.

How they combine

• Low volatility, high hit frequency. The balance drifts down slowly. Sessions last longer and big wins are rare.
• High volatility, low hit frequency. The balance falls quickly, punctuated by occasional large recoveries. Many sessions end without one.

What neither number changes

The long-run return of a game is fixed by its design. Volatility changes the route, not the destination. Over a very large number of spins, a high-volatility game and a low-volatility game with the same return percentage give back the same share.

Choosing with this in mind

• With a small budget and a wish to play for a while, lower volatility suits better.
• High volatility needs a budget that can absorb a long run of nothing, and the acceptance that the run may not end in time.
• Where a game publishes its volatility rating, treat it as a description of the ride, not a prediction of the result.